Bud Norris has had only one start this year where he's given up more than 2 ER. This is crazy good value in my eyes and I just can't pass it up. Lackey is making his 2nd start of the season since hurting his right bicep and hadn't pitched since 2011 before that. Houston has hit the ball well vs. RHP all year long including a .281 average and 5.54 runs per 9 on the road with a 4.25 bullpen. Both those numbers are better than what Boston has done at home. I see the Astros avoiding the 4 game sweep which is extremely hard to get in baseball. I think it's a great spot to take a chance with the Astros with great value. Boston is 7-19 in their last 26 as a home favorite -151 to -200.
Bartolo Colon keeps getting it done as he is 3-0 through 4 starts with a 0.92 WHIP and 2.42 ERA on the year. Gonzalez on the other hand has a 1.46 WHIP and a 5.55 XFIP as he's walking 4.5 guys per 9 and only striking out 4.88. He's gotten lucky with a 76.4 LOB % and a .268 BABIP as he has faced 4 opponents ranked int he bottom of the league in OPS with runners on (27th, 24th, 18th, and 18th). The A's offense is ranked 4th with runners in scoring position and 6th with runners on so this should be a different type of game. Meanwhile Colon does not give up the long ball just 6.5% HR/FB and that's what the Orioles rely on for scoring runs. In 125 AB he's held them to a .583 OPS with a .216 average. Look for Oakland to avoid the 3 game sweep at home where they are awfully good.
